Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.094789 4.472258 4.891265 5.395446 5.991964 6.683520 7.558566
2025-01-05 3.518870 3.992167 4.553577 5.282957 6.228536 7.449033 9.211227
2025-01-12 3.154742 3.665426 4.297538 5.162337 6.359052 8.035874 10.739434
2025-01-19 2.860863 3.377653 4.036185 4.970579 6.327068 8.352475 11.932527
2025-01-26 2.733924 3.282825 4.004355 5.070040 6.704088 9.337131 14.578814
2025-02-02 2.666337 3.254930 4.052801 5.280418 7.275177 10.776606 18.848292
2025-02-09 2.582722 3.195311 4.046944 5.403283 7.722205 12.129417 23.949936
2025-02-16 2.458229 3.068131 3.930348 5.336019 7.826168 12.842568 28.045042
2025-02-23 2.354729 2.962784 3.835824 5.290804 7.958125 13.655075 33.401195
2025-03-02 2.259879 2.863370 3.741639 5.234077 8.056132 14.424374 39.790347
2025-03-09 2.175058 2.773271 3.654565 5.179097 8.146696 15.211334 47.897442
2025-03-16 2.109843 2.708082 3.600964 5.175582 8.340317 16.351148 61.352328
2025-03-23 2.066185 2.673816 3.595438 5.260550 8.748016 18.341109 92.150758
2025-03-30 1.986474 2.581209 3.490620 5.154083 8.713819 18.959880 115.904222
2025-04-06 1.911116 2.491819 3.385849 5.038381 8.640668 19.433738 145.739273
2025-04-13 1.827696 2.386805 3.250292 4.854111 8.380493 19.150119 160.381197
2025-04-20 1.803148 2.371231 3.260912 4.949717 8.812218 21.729001 369.380004
2025-04-27 1.798749 2.386336 3.323029 5.151780 9.560245 26.363025 23354.682224
2025-05-04 1.779429 2.376784 3.342271 5.269689 10.120432 30.898122 NaN
2025-05-11 1.731764 2.320005 3.276552 5.205147 10.154878 32.587485 NaN
2025-05-18 1.690209 2.271514 3.222930 5.161750 10.245229 34.812429 NaN
2025-05-25 1.649299 2.222620 3.166268 5.107289 10.293982 36.897253 NaN
2025-06-01 1.610832 2.176406 3.112279 5.054491 10.340205 39.124508 NaN